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THE IMPACT
OF OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORTS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA
Unit Root
Test for Stationarity -------------------------------------------
Co-integration
Result ------------------------------------------------------
Modeling Log
of Differenced GDP by OLS --------------------------
Modeling Log
of Differenced INV by OLS ------------------------
Summary of
t-statistic test for model 1 ------------------------------
Summary of
t-statistic test for model 2 ------------------------------
TABLE OF
CONTENT
Title page
----------------------------------------------------------------
Approval
page ----------------------------------------------------------
Dedication --------------------------------------------------------------
Acknowledgement
-----------------------------------------------------
Abstract
-----------------------------------------------------------------
List of
tables -----------------------------------------------------------
Table of
content -------------------------------------------------------
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
-------------------------------------------------------
1.1
Background of study ---------------------------------------------
1.2
Statement of problem --------------------------------------------
1.3
Objective of the study -------------------------------------------
1.4
Statement of hypothesis -----------------------------------------
1.5
Significance of the study ----------------------------------------
1.6 Scope
and limitations of the study -----------------------------
CHAPTER TWOÂ
Â
2.1 Meaning
of oil and non-oil exports ----------------------------
2.2 A brief
historical perspective on oil in Nigeria --------------
2.3 Oil and
economic policies in Nigeria -------------------------
2.4 The
Dutch-Disease ----------------------------------------------
2.5 The boom
and burst periods in oil sector and policy response -----
2.6
Macroeconomic policies and structure of Non-oil export in Nigeria
2.7 Oil
export, Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria -------
Empirical
Literature----------------------------------------------------
CHAPTER
THREE
Research
methodology--------------------------------------------------------
3.1 Model
Specification------------------------------------------------------
3.2 Method
of Evaluation----------------------------------------------------
CHAPTER FOUR
4.1 Data
presentation---------------------------------------------------------
4.2 Data
Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------
CHAPTER FIVE
Summary,
Conclusion and Recommendation---------------------------
5.1
Summary------------------------------------------------------------------
5.2
Conclusion----------------------------------------------------------------
5.3
Recommendation---------------------------------------------------------
BIBLIOGRAPHY---------------------------------------------------------
Appendix
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1THE
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Oil, a very versatile and flexible,
non-reproductive, depleting, natural (hydrocarbon) is a fundamental input into
modern economic activity, providing about 50% of the total energy demand in the
world. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)
Petroleum or crude oil is an oily,
bituminous liquid consisting of a mixture of many substances, mainly the
element of carbon and hydrogen known as hydrocarbons. It also contains very
small amounts of non-hydrocarbon elements, chief amongst which are sulphur (about
0.2 to 0.6% in weight), then nitrogen and oxygen. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)
Non-oil exports comprises of
agricultural products, solid mineral, textile, tyre, manpower, etc. it is made
up of every other thing we export, except petroleum products. In the decades of
the 1960s and 1970s, the Nigeria economy was dominated by agricultural
commodity exports. Such commodities include cocoa, groundnut, cotton and palm
produce. From the mid 1970s, crude oil became the main export produce of the
Nigerian economy. (Anyanwu J.C. et al 1997)
The development of the petroleum
(oil) industry in the country began in 1909. It started with exploration
activities by the German Bitumen Corporation, but their search for oil seized
after the First World War because the Germans started the war and lost in the
war. With Nigeria being under British sectorial control, it was only natural
that the Germans had to stop their exploration activities.
In 1937, an oil prospecting license
was granted to shell D’Arcy Exploration parties. The first commercial discovery
of crude oil in Nigeria was made in 1956 by shell at Oloibiri. The company
started production and in 1961 the Federal government of Nigeria issued ten oil
prospecting licenses on the continental shelf to five companies. Each license
covered was subject to the payment of N1 million. With this generous concession
full-scale on-shore and off –shore oil exploration began.
Oil was found in commercial
quantities at Oloibiri in the Niger delta, further discoveries at Afam and Boma
established the country as an oil-producing nation. The Nigerian crude oil is
described as a sweet type because of its lightness and its low sulphur content.
It was largely sought-after in the international oil market.
The global perception of Nigeria is
that of a really blessed oil producing nation, but with a growing poverty
index. (Maaji Umar YAKUB, 2008). The problems of low economic performance of
Nigeria cannot be attributed solely to instability of earnings from the oil
sector, but as a result of failure by government to utilize productively the
earnings from the export of crude oil from the mid 1970s to develop other
sectors of the economy. Nigeria is among the poorest countries in the world,
with the poverty incidence estimated at 54% in 2006. The economy has been
substantially unstable, a consequence of the heavy dependence on oil revenue
and the volatility in its prices. The oil boom of the 1970s led to the neglect
of non-oil tax revenue, expansion of the public sector, and deterioration in
financial discipline and accountability. In turn, oil-dependency exposed
Nigeria to oil price volatility which threw the country’s public finance into
disarray.
This study will examine the relative
impact of oil and non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Oil is a
major source of energy in Nigeria and the world (in general). Oil being the
mainstay of the Nigerian economy plays a role, vital role in shaping the
economy and political destiny of the country. It was towards the end of the
Nigerian civil war (1967-1970) that the oil industry began to play a prominent
role on the economic life of the country.
Non-oil
product on the other hand plays an important role in the economic growth and
development of the country. Non-oil exports, especially agricultural product
like groundnut, palm oil, cotton, natural rubber, coffee, gum Arabic, sesame
seed, etc. was our main stay before the period of the oil boom. It was during
that period (that is, period of oil boom) that Nigerians neglected non-oil
exports to an extent.
Nigeria can
be categorized as a country that is primarily rural, that is, it depends on
primary product export (especially, oil product). Since the attainment of
independence in 1960 it has experienced ethnic, regional and religious
tensions, magnified by significant disparities in economic, educational and
environmental development in the south and in the north. This could be partly
attributed to the major discovery of oil in the country which affects and is
affected by economic and social components.
Crude oil
discovery has had certain impact on the Nigerian economy both positively and
adversely. On the negative side, this can be considered with respect to the
surrounding communities within which the oil wells are exploited. Some of these
communities still suffer environmental degradation, which leads to deprivation
of means of livelihood and other economic and social factors. Although, large
proceeds are obtained from the domestic sales and exports of petroleum
products, its effects on the growth of the Nigerian economy with regard to
returns and productivity is still questionable.
Hence, there
is need to evaluate the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic
growth in Nigeria. In the light of the study, the main objective is to assess
the relative impact of oil and non-oil export on the Nigerian economy.
Below are the research questions of
the study.
1. What is
the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on investment in Nigeria?
2. What is
the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic
growth in
Nigeria?
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY.
The broad
objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil and non-oil exports
on economic growth in Nigeria. However, the specific objectives are;
1. To
determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on
investment in Nigeria.
2. To
determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on
economic growth in Nigeria.
1.4
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
The
following hypotheses are tested in this study;
1. Both oil and non-oil exports have no
significant impact on investment in Nigeria.
2. Both oil and non-oil exports have no
significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
Countries of the world today are engaging
themselves more in international trade to earn foreign currency, maintain a
surplus Balance of Payment (BOP), establish good relationship with foreigners
and most of all achieve economic growth. Nigeria as a country is not left out
in the international trade. Our export commodities can de divided into oil and
non-oil.
It is important to study the relative
impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria to ascertain
whether the exportation is contributing to our economic growth and per capita
income or whether we have just been wasting our resources.
1.6 SCOPE
AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
This
research work covers the impact created on economic growth by oil and non-oil
exports. The geographical area involved is Nigeria. The study is as such a
comparative one. The variables of interest are oil export, non-oil export, real
interest rate, inflation rate, investment and GDP. The time period is from
1983-2007.
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